Inside the mind of Nancy Guthrie’s kidnapper: expert breaks down suspect’s spiral after ‘pivotal’ moment

Nancy Guthrie’s kidnapper is likely spiraling after videos and photos of the suspect breaking into her Tucson, Ariz., home on Feb. 1 were shared by the FBI.

As the desperate search for “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mother approaches the two-week mark, Page Six spoke with Chip Massey, a retired FBI hostage negotiator and special agent, who described the release of the videos and photos of the suspect as a “pivotal moment” in the case.

“The captor wanted this family’s money, but what they got was America looking for them,” Massey told us, adding that up until that point, the abductor had complete control of the situation.

“Now that your face is everywhere, your environment has to be very controlled, and that’s a very hard thing to do.”

Nancy Guthrie smiling while playing Mahjong.
Nancy Guthrie’s kidnapper is likely spiraling after videos and photos of the suspect breaking into her Tucson, Ariz., home on Feb. 1 were shared by the FBI. Courtesy NBC Universal

Savannah Guthrie and her mother, Nancy Guthrie, sitting in chairs outdoors.
The desperate search for “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mother is approaching the two-week mark. savannahguthrie/Instagram

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Not only does the perpetrator now have to ensure that his “comings and goings” aren’t being monitored, but he also has to care for his victim, who is “medically fragile,” “advanced in age” and was “injured” when she was taken, as Nancy requires daily medication, and a trail of her blood was found just outside her front door.

“So you’re dealing with somebody who has medical needs for sure,” Massey said. “And our concern is: Is this captor set up to handle this? Are they equipped both mentally and emotionally? Because this thing, the longer it goes, there’s so many emotional ups and downs, even for the captor.”

Pointing to the publication of the videos and photos, Massey theorized that it “created a lot of apprehension and stress and anxiety” for the kidnapper, which can be a double-edged sword.

“On the one hand, it could produce some errors, and we want that. We want them to make mistakes,” the CEO and co-founder of the Convincing Company told us, noting that the suspect’s heightened emotions can also be “bad” because “we don’t want them to do anything rash or that wouldn’t be of advantage to Nancy’s wellbeing.”

Nancy Guthrie smiling by a wooden fence with covered wagons in the background.
Page Six spoke with Chip Massey, a retired FBI hostage negotiator and special agent, who described the release of those videos and photos as a “pivotal moment” in the case. Facebook/Nancy Guthrie

Surveillance footage of a person in a balaclava, jacket, pants, and backpack.
“The captor wanted this family’s money, but what they got was America looking for them,” Massey told us, adding that up until that point, the abductor had complete control of the situation. FBI

While he acknowledged that the length of time Nancy has been gone is “excruciating,” he explained why it isn’t necessarily “a bad thing in terms of the negotiation process.”

“We want to do our best to establish that connection. We want to humanize Nancy as much as possible,” he said, praising Savannah, 54, for posting home videos of her “lovely mom” amid her various public pleas for her safe return.

Massey went on to share how he is trained to disarm an abductor metaphorically in order to disarm them physically.

“It’s realizing that you have to meet people where they are. This is somebody that is not afraid of violence. … But what you have to focus in on — as strange as this is — is the stress that they’re dealing with right now,” he pointed out.

Surveillance footage of a person in a Santa costume and a ski mask with a large sack over their shoulder.
“Now that your face is everywhere, your environment has to be very controlled, and that’s a very hard thing to do,” he added. FBI

Surveillance image of a suspect in a balaclava, light-colored jacket, and pants, holding an object, near an arched doorway.
Based on the recently recovered Google Nest camera footage, investigators were able to determine the sex and general body proportions. FBI

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Massey applauded Savannah and her siblings — sister Annie Guthrie, 56, and brother Camron Guthrie, 61 — for speaking directly to the suspect in a few of their Instagram videos, letting him know that they want to “communicate” and “will pay.”

“So what they’re doing is they’re telling that person, ‘Hey, I’m connecting with you,’” he said. “You are absolutely gonna want to key in on the fact that the captor — again, as strange as this is — is dealing himself with the stresses and strains of this event. You’re dealing with somebody who is holding the life of their mother in their hands.”

In spite of his actions, Massey emphasized that the perpetrator still has “basic universal human emotions and needs, so when you can hit those things that are universally connected — not that you’re gonna agree in any way, shape or form with their lifestyle and what they’ve decided to do — you’re going to start to make end roads.”

Massey made sure to add that the negotiation process is the same whether the victim is alive or dead.

However, like the Guthrie family, he’s operating on the belief that Nancy is alive.

Surveillance image of a suspect in a balaclava, holding flowers.
Pointing to the publication of the videos and photos, Massey theorized that it “created a lot of apprehension and stress and anxiety” for the abductor, which can be a double-edged sword. FBI

A collage of Savannah and Nancy Guthrie with two family members.
While it can prompt the perpetrator to make “mistakes,” it can also be “bad” because “we don’t want them to do anything rash or that wouldn’t be of advantage to Nancy’s wellbeing.” Instagram/savannahguthrie

Though the suspect in the recently recovered Google Nest camera footagewas fully disguised during the break-in, investigators were able to determine the sex and general body proportions, estimating that he’s 5’9″ or 5’10” tall.

Since Nancy’s abduction, multiple ransom notes have been sent to news organizations describing demands for a large bitcoin payment by specific deadlines.

On Tuesday, a small deposit was made into a bitcoin wallet related to the case, which a cryptocurrency expert told Page Six was another moment the captor lost “control” of the situation because “once a transaction is made, they become the one being watched.”

Nancy was last seen the night of Jan. 31 and declared missing the next day.

The FBI — which is working closely with the Pima County Sheriff’s Department — has increased the reward for information about the case to $100,000.